BIG MARLEY’S UFC 234 DRAFT KINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests a bit and I enjoy the new choice of competitions and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k belongs to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will be distributed between all 100 admissions that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be real bankroll suckers therefore be cautious chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic amount of play into money games.
Cash Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am really not loving this slate for money games, and that I was only going to pick the principal event stack for my money game play of this week. However, I can see the major event only scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I want a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I have changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a fantastic cash game play. I really don’t know how high of a ceiling he has because I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting finished. I believe he has a top floor since this battle should go all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter anyplace and that I see him winning this battle with a mixture of wrestling and striking. I do think he has 100-point upside into a decision, and that I think he could finish this battle. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he is my money game play of this week rather than my GPP play. GPP drama of the week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this fight is by getting KO’d. He should be the much superior fighter on the mat, and I believe he can hang the toes as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara has no floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess heavy power in his hands I think Kang has a floor of 0 things, but that is why he is my GPP play of the week and not my money game play of the week. In money, I want to lock in high floors and that is not what we have here. I like this more for GPPs because if he loses at $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come away with a gain if he lost a determination at that price and scored 30-40 points, we’d simply need to hit on our other spots. We don’t want 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he’s 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter wanting to grapple and I could see him becoming multiple takedowns as well as a submission. I think he gets a 1st or 2nd round entry and I don’t expect for him to endure too long with Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I enjoy him as a pivot away from a big name who could be more popular.
Underdog play of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I am actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to stay standing for as long as it continues. I personally see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that is true, then I believe Gastelum has the maximum floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a reasonable amount of shots. I also think if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that may not place him on the 30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he will probably be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he’s my underdog play of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I have to stay on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I’ve picked him my fade every time he has fought so I will roll with it again. The style Alvey brings to the table is just not valuable for DraftKings. The only way Alvey could score highly is by obtaining a knockout win. He fails to strike at a high enough pace to score highly in a decision and he won’t be going for almost any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he can score 50-60 DK points and that might not be enough to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x from a fighter once I roll them and with his $7.9k price label, that means I need at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I’m 54-34 for +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)